por: Paul Davidson e Henry C.K. Liu
Caros líderes do mundo:
O Inverno de 2008-2009 provará ser o inverno do descontentamento económico global a marcar a rejeição da ideologia enviesada de que mercados financeiros globais não regulamentados promovem a inovação, a eficiência do mercado, o crescimento sem restrições e a prosperidade sem fim ao mesmo tempo que reduzem o risco através da sua difusão por todo o sistema. Durante mais de três décadas a corrente dominante de economistas neoliberais pregou, e os reguladores aceitaram, o mito da eficiência dos mercados não regulamentados, ignorando a lição crítica proporcionada pela análise de John Maynard Keynes da interconexão dos mercados financeiros e do sistema de pagamentos internacional.
Aqueles que não aprendem as lições da história estão destinados a repetir as suas tragédias. Os economistas neoliberais nas últimas três décadas negaram a possibilidade de uma repetição da destruição da Grande Depressão à escala mundial após o colapso da bolha especulativa criada pelos mercados financeiros sem restrições dos EUA dos "Frenéticos anos 20". Eles enganaram-se a si próprios ao pensar que a falsa prosperidade construída sobre a dívida poderia ser sustentável com complacência monetária. Agora a história está a repetir-se, desta vez com o vírus novo e mais letal que infestou os mercados financeiros globais desregulamentados: a "inovadora" titularização de dívidas, as finanças estruturadas e as operações bancárias independentes inundadas com o excesso de liquidez libertado por bancos centrais acomodatícios. Uma maciça estrutura de riqueza fantasma foi construída sobre a areia movediça da manipulação da dívida. Esta bolha da dívida finalmente implodiu em Julho de 2007 e agora está a ameaçar deitar abaixo todo o sistema financeiro global e a provocar um colapso económico a menos que liderança política esclarecida adopte medidas correctivas numa escala global.
O problema das hipotecas sub-prime dos EUA que começou em 2007 redundou como era de esperar num pântano que provocou a falha dos mercados financeiros interconectados e ameaçou a viabilidade de instituições financeiras à escala mundial pelo contágio propagado à velocidade electrónica através de um antiquado e disfuncional sistema internacional de pagamentos.
Para deter o colapso financeiro global, pode-se aprender muito com a visão de Keynes de como o sistema internacional de pagamentos deveria funcionar para permitir a cada país promover uma política de pleno emprego sem ter de temer problemas de balança de pagamentos ou permitir que incidentes financeiros infectem o sistema bancário interno e sistemas financeiros não-bancários.
Uma outra Grande Depressão pode ser evitada se os líderes mundiais reconsiderarem o sistema analítico de John Maynard Keynes que contribuiu para a era dourada do primeiro quarto de século após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Os signatários e outros há muito advogam uma nova arquitectura financeira internacional baseada numa versão actualizada para o século XXI do Plano Keynes originalmente proposta em Bretton Woods no ano de 1944.
Esta nova arquitectura financeira internacional tem como objectivo criar (1) um novo regime monetário global que opere sem divisa hegemónica, (2) um relacionamento do comércio global que apoie o desenvolvimento interno ao invés de retardá-lo e (3) um ambiente económico global que promova incentivos a cada país para promover o pleno emprego e aumentar os salários da sua força de trabalho.
Atentamente, Paul Davidson
Editor,
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics
Visiting Scholar
Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis,
The New School, New York
Henry C.K. Liu
Visiting Professor of Global Development,
Department of Economics,
University of Missouri-Kansas City
Texto original em: http://henryckliu.com/page174.html e
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JK08Dj06.html
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French Army Academy (Saint Cyr)
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